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恒大风暴 Too big to fail?负债3000亿美元


The trouble of a large Chinese real estate company comes at a time when Beijing is beating private companies and strengthening economic supervision. At present, the fate of Evergrande is difficult to tell. Some scholars pointed out that regardless of whether Beijing rescues Evergrande, China's economy will be hit hard and economic growth will continue to slow down.恒大风暴 Too big to fail?负债3000亿美元

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The debt-ridden Chinese real estate giant Evergrande Group is in deep trouble, causing the industry to worry about the possible spread of the crisis, worrying that it may severely damage the economic growth of China, the world's second largest economy, and affect the international supply chain, thereby seriously disrupting the global economy .
It is generally believed that despite Evergrande’s debt of 300 billion US dollars, the Chinese government will still rescue it in some way. Evergrande is different from Lehman Brothers in the US during the global financial crisis in 2008. Evergrande is "too big to fail".

The main reason the ruling CCP will pull Evergrande is to ensure the stability it needs to hold power. If anything is too big to fall, it is the CCP itself.

Evergrande’s success is based on China’s development model
In terms of sales volume, Evergrande is the second largest real estate developer in China. Its early success is based on China's amazing urbanization project in the past 20 years-the world's largest urbanization project.

The surge in housing demand means that real estate companies backed by local governments can make money efficiently. Lease of land to real estate developers is the main way to make money.

The central government strongly encourages this large-scale expansion. One of the reasons is that a large part of China's economic growth is based on real estate, which accounts for 29% of GDP.
However, once an industry overheats, the CCP will intervene in order to stabilize it. Recently, in its efforts to continue to emphasize economic development as the center of rejuvenation, the CCP has introduced more measures to strengthen economic control.

As a real estate empire built on rapid expansion and massive borrowing, Evergrande uses a cash flow model that is similar to a Ponzi scheme in the eyes of many people. Building for sale. At present, Evergrande's life is hanging by a thread.

"China's economy will be hit hard"
Ho-fung Hung, a professor of political economy at Johns Hopkins University, said that Beijing’s tightening of its control over the Chinese economy is a “North Koreanization” approach with unpredictable consequences.

In an interview with Deutsche Welle, he said that if the CCP does not rescue, Evergrande will collapse, which may lead to economic chaos and social unrest; if rescued in a certain way, there will be many others who are in the same or worse situation. Big developers, and the government is obviously unable to rescue everyone. "Therefore, no matter how it develops, it will inevitably hurt the economy. China's old growth model, which relies heavily on debt-financed fixed-asset investment, is unsustainable."

Kong Haofeng believes that given that the transformation of the Chinese Communist Party’s economy to high-tech, private consumption-driven growth is far from complete, he expects that China’s economic growth will continue to slow down, with a deeper, broader and longer duration.

恒大风暴》Too big to fail?负债3000亿美元,救与不救间,北京千万难










他在接受德国之声采访时表示,如果中共不救,恒大就会倒闭,可能导致经济混乱和社会动荡;如果以某种方式获救,将会有许多其他人处于相同或更糟的境地。大开发商,政府显然也救不了大家。 “因此,无论如何发展,都不可避免地会伤害经济。中国严重依赖债务融资固定资产投资的旧增长模式是不可持续的。”


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