> 主要 > 中国房地产巨头恒大连日来被推上国际舆论的风口浪尖 一旦恒大破产是否会引发多米诺效应,会对中国经济乃至世界经济带来多大的冲击?

中国房地产巨头恒大连日来被推上国际舆论的风口浪尖 一旦恒大破产是否会引发多米诺效应,会对中国经济乃至世界经济带来多大的冲击?


Chinese real estate giant Hengdalian has been pushed to the forefront of international public opinion. Although Evergrande paid part of the debt interest on Thursday on Thursday, which gave panic creditors see weak hope, public opinion continues to pay attention to the debt as high as 2 trillion yuan. Will Evergrande, which is equivalent to 2% of China's GDP, come down? Will the Beijing government let it go or will it do its utmost to help? Once Evergrande goes bankrupt, will it trigger a domino effect, and how much impact will it have on the Chinese economy and the world economy?

In today’s Economic Today program, this station summarizes the comments of all parties.

The French weekly Opinion Weekly website recently published a long review article with the headline: Why did Xi Jinping allow Evergrande to collapse? The article introduced Evergrande’s position in China’s economy, and pointed out that over the past two decades since Evergrande’s establishment, nearly 29% of China’s economy is supported by the real estate industry. In contrast, France’s real estate industry accounts for 14% of GDP. %. The outside world has been worried about when the Chinese property market bubble will burst for many years. However, so far, the Chinese government has been continuously transfusing blood to the real estate industry. So, how is Evergrande different this time? The new crown crisis has stagnated the real estate market. In the past two years, housing prices have hardly fluctuated. Especially after China’s official establishment of the three red lines for the real estate industry, Chinese real estate companies have generally fallen into crisis. Evergrande’s debt-to-asset ratio is not the most dangerous of them. Yes, only 18% of Chinese real estate companies meet the official targets. The article quoted the analysis of the Canadian China expert Alex Payette and pointed out that the Evergrande crisis does not exclude political factors. He believes that Xu Jiayin’s so-called self-made inspirational story is just a legend. In China, no businessman, including Jack Ma, can break away from the official Support, and he believes that Xu Jiayin's backing should be Jiang Sect elder Zeng Qinghong. If Xi Jinping wants to attack Zeng Qinghong, he will probably start with his wallet first. Of course, Xi Jinping is also fully aware of the possible social consequences of the collapse of Evergrande. The target of public anger may eventually turn to the party and the government. In order to appease investors and buyers of houses, the Beijing government may eventually choose a compromise solution. plan.

The Beijing government should not be saved. Patrick Wong, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) based in Hong Kong, also holds a similar view. He believes that the Chinese government will find a way. Methods to avoid a major crisis in the real estate industry. But at the same time, in order to avoid giving other developers the green light, the government will not provide Evergrande with comprehensive relief. He believes that China's state-owned enterprises can help solve the crisis and acquire the land and projects in the hands of developers. However, this process may be very long, and in the short term, the situation will be very bad.

However, some overseas Chinese media commentators on current affairs believe that Evergrande’s thunderstorm actually started as early as a year ago. The Chinese government has already tried its best to save it and injected a lot of funds. Evergrande is too big to fail; it is too big to fail. It cannot be saved. After injecting a large amount of capital, Beijing also began to suspect that this bottomless pit was unexplorable, so it decided to let Evergrande collapse under a controllable premise and let individual investors investing in Evergrande wealth management projects bear the investment risk because of this batch of investments. In the end, they are likely to be like the Chinese who invested in p2P financial management and lost their money in 2018. They can only admit that they are unlucky.

As for whether the collapse of Evergrande will have a huge impact on the Chinese economy? Is Evergrande likely to become China's "Lehman"? The comments are quite divided. Chinese domestic economists generally believe that the collapse of Evergrande is unlikely to trigger a financial crisis, although they also admit that the weakness of the real estate industry will definitely have a negative impact on the Chinese economy. Analysts pointed out that the outbreak of the financial crisis is largely related to market panic, and market panic is mainly caused by psychological factors. In a country where information is blocked, the panic can be eliminated from the source as long as the information is blocked, thus avoiding the financial crisis. It is believed that the Chinese government is able to control the information field with ease.

If the American financial giant Soros' claim that the collapse of Evergrande will lead to the collapse of the Chinese economy is quite alarmist, the Chinese economy does face many other troubles besides Evergrande. The New York Times pointed out that many industrial sectors in China Overcapacity, coupled with the recession of the construction industry, prompted economists to make predictions of slowing economic growth. Bank of America on Tuesday lowered China's economic growth forecast for next year, from the previous 6.2% to 5.3%.

中国房地产巨头恒大连日来被推上国际舆论的风口浪尖 一旦恒大破产是否会引发多米诺效应,会对中国经济乃至世界经济带来多大的冲击?中国房地产巨头恒大连日来被推上国际舆论的风口浪尖 一旦恒大破产是否会引发多米诺效应,会对中国经济乃至世界经济带来多大的冲击?

中国房地产巨头恒大联被推到了国际舆论的前沿。尽管周四恒大支付了部分债务利息,这让恐慌的债权人看到了希望渺茫,但舆论继续关注高达2万亿元的债务。相当于中国GDP 2%的恒大,会不会倒下?北京政府会放过它还是会尽最大努力提供帮助?一旦恒大破产,是否会引发多米诺骨牌效应,对中国经济和世界经济的影响有多大?


法国周刊《民意周刊》近日发表长篇评论文章,标题为:习近平为何让恒大倒闭?文章介绍了恒大在中国经济中的地位,并指出,恒大成立20年来,中国经济的近29%是由房地产行业支撑的。相比之下,法国的房地产业占GDP的14%。 %。多年来,外界一直在担心中国楼市泡沫何时破灭。然而,迄今为止,中国政府一直在不断地向房地产行业输血。那么,恒大这次有何不同?新冠危机让房地产市场停滞不前。过去两年,房价几乎没有波动。尤其是在中国正式确立房地产三条红线后,中国房地产企业普遍陷入危机。恒大的资产负债率并不是其中最危险的。是的,只有 18% 的中国房地产公司达到了官方目标。文章援引加中专家亚历克斯·帕耶特的分析,指出恒大危机不排除政治因素。他认为,许家印所谓的白手起家励志故事只是一个传说。在中国,包括马云在内的任何商人都无法脱离官方的支持,他认为许家印的靠山应该是江门长老曾庆红。习近平要打击曾庆红,恐怕要先从钱包说起。当然,习近平也充分意识到恒大倒闭可能带来的社会后果。民愤的目标最终可能会转向党和政府。为了安抚投资者和购房者,北京市政府最终可能会选择一种折衷的解决方案。计划。

北京政府不应该得救。彭博资讯(BI)驻香港的分析师 Patrick Wong 也持有类似的观点。他相信中国政府会想办法的。避免房地产行业发生重大危机的方法。但同时,为避免给其他开发商开绿灯,政府不会向恒大提供全面救助。他认为,中国国有企业可以帮助化解危机,获得开发商手中的土地和项目。但是,这个过程可能会很长,短期来看,情况会很糟糕。




中国房地产巨头恒大连日来被推上国际舆论的风口浪尖 一旦恒大破产是否会引发多米诺效应,会对中国经济乃至世界经济带来多大的冲击?:等您坐沙发呢!