> 主要 > 恒大危机背后:中国房地产市场现裂痕


Angry buyers are waiting for the completion of 1.6 million apartments. Suppliers of cement, paint, and steel were owed more than $100 billion in payments. Employees panicked, worried that the loans they lent to their employers would not be repaid.恒大危机背后:中国房地产市场现裂痕
Evergrande Group was once China's most prolific developer, and its cranes dotted China's skyline. But now, it is crumbling under the weight of more than $300 billion in debt. The current risk is not just a matter of the fate of a company: Evergrande’s predicament raises concerns that China’s residential and commercial real estate markets may collapse. This market has driven one-third of the growth of the world's second largest economy.
On Monday, this panic triggered a global chain reaction, with global stock markets falling as the stocks of Chinese house builders and large multinational corporations fell. On Tuesday, after S&P Global Ratings made terrible predictions about Evergrande’s fate, its stocks and bonds fell again. The rating agency said: “We believe that Beijing will be forced to intervene only when there is a large-scale spread that leads to the closure of many large developers and brings systemic risks to the economy.” On Thursday, Evergrande Real Estate had a report. The interest of $83.5 million may not be paid, which will trigger more market turmoil.
If a company of the size of Evergrande fails orderly, it may have a knock-on effect in China and elsewhere, including scaring away investors who have bet tens of billions of dollars on the success of the company and the real estate industry.

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Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University, said: "If we are caught in this vicious circle, then without reliable intervention, we will see a large number of real estate developers in trouble."
In many ways, this problem was caused by Beijing itself, and the impact of Evergrande’s collapse will ultimately depend on the actions of the Chinese government.
For decades, China's real estate market seemed to have no limits. Developers like Evergrande Real Estate build cities from the ground, creating job opportunities, giving the middle class a place to pour their savings, and enriching the local governments that sell their land. In the process, they helped create economic growth that shocked the world.
Now that housing prices have become too high, Beijing is trying to slow its rate of rise. It also tried to convey the message: no company is too big to fail.
Evergrande’s problems stem from new restrictions on housing sales. Beijing is currently trying to curb real estate prices and address people’s concerns about rising housing prices. The government is also trying to give a lesson to developers who have borrowed heavily in recent years to build more real estate and finance investments for other businesses. (In the case of Evergrande, these benefits include electric cars and a football team.) The possible default of giants like Evergrande highlights the fragility of China's real estate industry. Some experts said that if the company goes bankrupt, it may cause panic in China's entire real estate industry (including all commercial, industrial and residential real estate), which may make Beijing more difficult to control.
Evergrande warned that it was facing tremendous pressure and hired restructuring experts to help determine its future. It has nearly 800 development projects still in progress in more than 200 cities. It has paid some unfinished construction suppliers, while contractors who have not yet received the payment have protested.
Although market observers once believed that Beijing would intervene at the first moment of trouble, rating agencies, banks, and investors have all taken into account Evergrande’s possible default. Many people now predict that Beijing will not intervene until other real estate developers begin to fail and pose a collective risk to the entire financial system.
"Officials still have some tools they can use to quell panic," said Chen Zhiwu, a professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong, who predicted that the authorities would spin off the company and sell some of it. "They are under tremendous pressure and must announce something as soon as possible."
Regarding the Evergrande issue, Beijing faces two bad choices. Regulators can step in and force state-owned banks to provide the company with the funds needed to pay all its suppliers, construction workers, home buyers and employees. But other developers will continue to do the same thing, borrowing arbitrarily, and fueling a growing real estate bubble, which Beijing has expressed unwilling to tolerate.
It can also let it go and let Evergrande go bankrupt, but it "is unwilling to do so because it will lead to economic collapse," Pettis said.
Beijing also has a way to control the social dissatisfaction that is brewing around Evergrande. Chinese censorship agencies have removed dozens of videos of the crowds of protesters in Evergrande offices in cities such as Hefei and Shenzhen last week. The police have threatened to lay off employees who are trying to get the attention of local officials.
But Beijing's ability to control the country's banks and large financial institutions is its greatest source of power.
Moreover, as investors begin to doubt their own vision of the entire real estate industry, the longer the authorities have to wait for Evergrande’s bailout, the more likely it is that other developers will suffer losses.
Like Evergrande, other Chinese real estate developers are also burdened with huge debts, and regulators are forcing them to repay their debts in accordance with the “three red lines” rules designed to limit the banking system’s exposure to real estate.
More broadly, the real estate market is beginning to slow down, and industry practices that help promote sales and allow developers to maintain operations—such as pre-sales of properties before completion—are being questioned. Regulators in at least two provinces announced new regulations this week to combat illegal behavior, including delayed delivery of real estate, misleading advertising or price manipulation.
In recent days, as the Chinese stock market has closed, the shares of other major Chinese developers listed in Hong Kong have become the target of investors’ concerns. The much smaller real estate developer Sinic Holdings (Sinic Holdings) shares fell 87% on Monday before trading was suspended.
"The question is: how much do they want to teach people a lesson?" said Travis Lundy, an independent investment analyst in Hong Kong. "How willing are they to make others suffer?"


周一,这种恐慌引发了全球连锁反应,随着中国房屋建筑商和大型跨国公司的股票下跌,全球股市下跌。周二,在标普全球评级(S&P Global Ratings)对恒大的命运做出可怕预测后,其股票和债券再次下跌。该评级机构表示:“我们认为,只有在出现大范围蔓延,导致多家大型开发商倒闭,并给经济带来系统性风险时,北京才会被迫介入。”周四,恒大地产有一笔8350万美元的利息可能无法支付,这将引发更多市场动荡。


北京大学金融学教授迈克尔·佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)表示:“如果我们陷入这种恶性循环,那么如果没有可靠的干预,我们将看到大量房地产开发商陷入困境。”
最近几天,随着中国股市休市,在香港上市的中国其他主要开发商的股票成为投资者担忧的目标。规模小得多的房地产开发商新力控股(Sinic Holdings)周一股价下跌87%,随后停牌。
“问题是:他们有多想给人带来教训?”香港独立投资分析师特拉维斯·伦迪(Travis Lundy)说。“他们有多大意愿让其他人因此而受苦?”